IPCC Report Doesn't Prove Causality

I took the time the read through the IPCC's "Summary for Policymakers" last night and have come to this conclusion.

While it does show that the Earth's climate is changing, in this case we are experiencing global warming and it does show a correlation between rising CO2 concentrations and a rise in temperature, it doesn't do a good job to prove causality.

This is evident if the "Radiative Forcing Components" graph on page 16. The problem is the only factors that have a high level of scientific understanding are "long lived greenhouse gases". All other factors that fit in the global spacial scale have low scientific understanding. This is especially true for water vapour, aerosols and Solar Irradiance. Without a high level of understanding for these factors, it is premature to say with any level of confidence of Anthropogenic global warming.

The report also does not take into effect the negative Radiative Forcing of Volcanic aerosols. They do note that it's not included because it's episodic, but I think that's it's wrong to not include it. Volcanic activity does occurs with differing frequency, but it does occur continuously. Therefore it's factor is important. The graph on page 3 of this report show a RF factor up to -5 for some years for volcanic activity.

Also Based on data from NOAA, the Sun's Average solar irradiance from 1978 - 2003 is 1,256 Watts/M^2 / second. This must have a significant factor on warming.

I find it hard for scientists to be "very likely" certain of anthropogenic cause, given the low level of understanding of some other factors that determine net Radiative Forcing.

The report also doesn't correlate CO2 concentration and CO2 output. It also ignores completely what the net CO2 output (Fossil Fuels, land use, natural) and compare it to what levels might have been pre-industrial era.

I'm not saying that Humans aren't the main factor because as this report shows all the evidence isn't understood with a high degree of scientific knowledge. It seems that the report has the sole purpose of showing that we're responsible and ignores everything else.

This report, while important, still doesn't prove whether anthropogenic CO2 levels are the main cause of global warming or they are the result of global warming. The debate over what's causing global warming and what can be done about it, if possible must continue.


Graph from page IPCC Report


Solar Irradiance NOAA

UPDATE:

For the people that believe questioning the finding of a IPCC report is the same as "Global Warming Denial", you might want to try using the left side of you brain, instead of the right.

You might want to try understanding the definition of science, it's quite different from activism